Zambia economic outlook 2016 pdf

It focuses on the economic conditions of association of southeast asian nations asean member countries. Economic outlook 2016 3 preamble the tanzania economic outlook 2016 report provides an overview of tanzanias economic environment and key sectors. However, the zambian gvernment is undertaking economic diversification to reduce the countrys reliance on the copper industry and exploit other components of zambias rich resource base by promoting agriculture, tourism, gemstone mining and hydro power generation. The revised outlook is based on an improving macroeconomic climate which will be supportive of reducing fiscal deficits. Tanzania economic outlook 2016 the story behind the. Zambia economy, politics and gdp growth summary the. Zambia remains committed to the socioeconomic development planning of the country as reflected by the return to development planning in 2005.

In zambia, gross domestic product gdp has had an average growth rate of over 6 per cent since 2010, with. The latest jctr 2001 monthly food basket survey shows that it is becoming more and more. The outlook for the zimbabwean economy 2 been unstable with repeated inconsistency and reversals and, even when policy has been reasonable, weak execution. Rating agency standard and poors has revised zambias economic outlook from negative to stable. African economic outlook 2016 algeria angola benin botswana burkina faso burundi cabo verde cameroon central african republic chad comoros congo congo, dem. The economy likely remained in a dire situation in h2 2019, after growth slumped to a threeandahalfyear low in q2 2019. The first major task of his government was to launch the five point economic recovery program termed zambia plus. The economy of zambia is one of the fastest growing economies in africa and its capital, lusaka is the fastest growing city in the southern african development community sadc.

Current economic outlook foreign direct investment in zambia conclusion chapter 3. Zambia had one of the worlds fastest growing economies for the ten years up to 2014, with real gdp growth averaging roughly 6. Zambias economic outlook is now stablestandard and poors. The world bank group in zambia accelerating and sharing growth through improved competitiveness the world bank group in zambia.

In july 2016, the government adopted a new economic growth plan 201630 focusing on the private sector and a three year budget stabilization strategy. Oecd ilibrary economic outlook for southeast asia, china. Severe drought conditions continued to restrain output at hydropower dams, weighing on the agricultural harvest and. This requires all of us to work even harder for the benefit of the zambian people. Real gdp growth slowed to an estimated 2% in 2019, down from 4. This web page provides information on the activities of the office, views of the imf staff, and the relations between zambia and the imf. Economic outlook, risks and policy challenges 17 section 2. Severe drought conditions continued to restrain output at hydropower dams, weighing on the agricultural harvest and seemingly undercutting household spending growth in turn. Zambia was overtaken by the democratic republic of congo as africas largest copper producer. Zambia economic outlook african development bank building.

In response, the bank of zambias monetary policy committee mpc tightened its monetary policy. The same report ranked zambia as the 96 th most competitive economy. Zambia is africas secondlargest copper producer which achieved middleincome country status in 2011, during a decade 20042014 of impressive economic growth, averaging 7. Since independence in 1980, zimbabwe has implemented no less than 15 economic blueprints. The report illustrates the role water plays in the economy of zambia, with a specific focus on the kafue flats the lifeline of zambias economy. Welcome to pwc zambias 2018 banking and nonbanking. The seventh national development plan 7ndp for the period 2017 2021 is the successor to the revised sixth national development plan, 202016 rsndp following its expiry in december 2016. This page has economic forecasts for zambia including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm expectations for the next four quarters and shortterm market predictions for the next release affecting the zambia economy. Zambia economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. The tenth zambia economic brief has been prepared by gregory smith.

Similarly, more are positive about their own living standards in. Consumer prices total all urban areas 12term % change. Based on 1usd 111 yen bank of japan rate, 2016 average. Cote divoire djibouti egypt equatorial guinea eritrea ethiopia gabon gambia ghana guinea guineabissau kenya lesotho liberia libya madagascar malawi mali mauritania mauritius morocco mozambique namibia niger nigeria rwanda. Learn more about the zambia economy, including the population of zambia, gdp, facts, trade, business, inflation and other data and analysis on its economy from the index of economic freedom. The rapidly increasing public debt 80% of gdp at the end of 2019, up from 35% at the end of 2014 places zambia at a high risk of debt distress. Recent economic developments zambia s recent economic performance suffers from a mix of domestic and international unfavourable.

Outlook zambias mediumterm outlook is largely constrained by a weak. Growth the zambian economy is under duress as a cyclical downturn exacerbated structural challenges of weak infrastructure and a narrow economic base. Other sectors such as mining and construction also recorded positive growth but at a. Moodys investors service has, friday, january 26, 2018, upgraded the rating outlook for zambia to stable from negative.

The most urgent issue for the zambian economy is thus a further reduction of its. Despite the challenges, the outlook for subsaharan africa remains positive and significantly ahead of the global average. The economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india is a biannual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in emerging asia. However, growth only benefitted a small segment of the urban population, with limited impact on poverty. The human capital index hci database provides data at the country level for each of the components of the human capital index as well as for the overall index, disaggregated by gender. Kalyalya made the comment during the african exportimport bank afreximbank 23 rd annual general meetings held in seychelles between 18 th and 24 th july 2016. Zambia economic outlook and investment environment. According to the world economic forums 20142015 the global competitiveness, zambia is the 8 th most competitive economy in subsaharan africa, out of 33 economies analysed. This program aims at balancing the budget to sustainable levels following the increase in.

Zambia s reputation as a beacon of democracy and stability. The countrys economy has historically been based on the copper mining industry. Zambia african economic outlook 2017 although the next twelve months look more promising, zambia faced economic challenges in 2016 following another year of low copper prices and crippling electricity supply deficits affecting economic activity. It affirmed the credit rating for the copperrich country at b. In 202024 zambia faces a highly uncertain economic and political outlook as its government struggles to meet large and opaque outstanding debt obligations.

Zambias economy was hit by drought in the south and west that lowered 201819 agricultural production and hydropower electricity generation considerably. It is a social crisis with the majority of people denied a minimum decent living standard. Brunei darussalam, cambodia, indonesia, lao pdr, malaysia, myanmar, the philippines, singapore, thailand. The principal purpose of the bank of zambia is to achieve and maintain price and financial system stability to foster sustainable economic development. Trends in foreign direct investment and real gdp growth rates, 2000 to 2014. The agency affixed the negative outlook a year earlier due to a combination of falling copper revenue and slowing economic growth leading to persistent and large fiscal deficits as well as a doubling of government debt since. Zambia has strong growth potential, but lingering vulnerabilities pose risks to the outlook.

The oecd economic outlook is the oecds twiceyearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. In its january 2016 world economic outlook update, the imf revised forecasts for global growth down by 0. The report also highlights significant allocations from the 201617 budget to various sectors in the country. Zambia peter engbo rasmussen, colleen zamba and elda chirwa. According to a rating action statement issued in london by moodys, the stable outlook reflects reduced government liquidity pressures and a. Lusaka, june 29, 2017 the zambian economy has continued its recovery in 2017, but the stronger growth and better macroeconomic indicators have not resulted in an improvement in the fiscal indicators, says a new world bank economic brief reaping richer returns from public expenditures in agriculture pdf released today. About onehalf of the countrys 16 million people are concentrated in a few urban zones strung along the major transportation corridors. Rate at which the private sector banks borrow namibian dollars from the bank of. I am pleased to share the sixth zambia economic brief with a focus section on the power sector. We have assigned a stable outlook to reflect a number of more positive developments that we expect will continue to reduce pressure on zambias fiscal, economic, and external assessments, they said, adding that they still assessed zambia as being highly vulnerable to a reversal of these trends, despite the authorities implementing. Zambia itself is one of subsaharan africas most highly urbanized countries.

Recent economic developments zambias recent economic performance suffers from a mix of domestic and international unfavourable. It says zambias improving growth prospects and greater liquidity in its banking system have. In the context of the 2015 article iv consultation with. After strong headwinds in 2015 and 2016, economic conditions were. Fitch downgraded the outlook on zambias sovereign credit rating from stable to negative. Why has poverty remained so high, despite gdp growth. Prospects in the retail and consumer goods sector in ten. An overview of zambias economic and poverty situation introduction poverty is the most profound challenge that zambia faces today. By 2016, these issues had accumulated into what was effectively a crisis with the economy suffering. President edgar lungu was reelected in the august 2016 general elections. In sharp contrast with the 19911998 period, the country has recorded positive gdp growth for the last. Real gdp growth has slowed, the current account has.

African economic outlook 2016 african development bank. This program aims at balancing the budget to sustainable levels following the increase in fiscal deficits to about 10% of gdp in 2016. Zambia gdp the economy likely remained in a dire situation in h2 2019, after growth slumped to a threeandahalfyear low in q2 2019. Table 1 2018 cpi inflation has risen above the upper a b. Zambia economic outlook real gdp growth slowed to an estimated 2% in 2019, down from 4. This brief is part of a series of short economic updates produced twice a year by the world bank. Further borrowing over the medium term for a series of debtfinanced infrastructure projects will prevent an imf rescue. Slightly over half of zambians 54% say the countrys economic condition is good, compared to 22% who echoed the same sentiment in 2009 and 19% in 2005. In the last two years, the zambian economy has been weighed down by large fiscal imbalances, lower copper prices and policy uncertainties. Zambias lack of economic diversification and dependency on copper as its sole major export makes it vulnerable to fluctuations in the world commodities market and prices turned downward in 2015 due to declining demand from china. Additional information can be found on zambia and imf country page, including official imf reports and executive board documents in english that deal with zambia. Economic indicators for zambia including actual values, historical data charts, an economic calendar, timeseries statistics, business news, long term forecasts and. And statement by the executive director for zambia under article iv of the imfs articles of agreement, the imf holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. Denny kalyalya has recently commented that the countrys economic outlook is stable.